What’s up guys?  This is an article that I wrote previously, but I just updated it for publication in Bluff magazine.

 

Most of the expert players you see play poker when you turn on the tv or open up the high stakes tables appear to play a loose style. Many novice and intermediate players consequently believe playing a loose aggressive style is optimal, and they overvalue loose play. Think about a common spot: opening from middle position. If you open 22 or A9s from MP it’s hardly going to effect your results, because those hands are likely to be around breakeven in the typical online game. Thus is it is only a stylistic choice whether or not to open those hands as a default. There are certainly tables where opening those hands from MP is profitable, and there are tables where it would be a mistake. The key to optimizing your profits is being able to tell the difference. You have to know with each situation whether it’s favorable to loosening up a little bit.

The reason why there is a perception that most of the expert players are loose is simple: you notice the loose players far more than the tight players at a table simply because they are playing more hands. In the televised tournaments, many hands that are uneventful are cut out and they make the tables seem looser than they actually are. Plus it’s always fun to see someone try to steal with 27o and run a big bluff on television, so they show those hands. The problem with trying to emulate their styles is twofold. You don’t know whether they are winning a lot at the tables and you don’t know if it’s because of their looser style.

My advice to novice and intermediate players is not to focus on whether something is loose or tight, but to have a reason for each move that you make. Don’t open up T9s from MP because it’s part of your range for that position; open it up because there is a player in the blinds who calls a lot preflop and folds to a lot of flop bets. Don’t call a 3 bet with KQ because it’s overly tight to fold; call because the opponent’s 3-betting range is wide and top pair is likely to win you a good pot. I would recommend for each range that you play, separate it into two sets of ranges: the hands that you always play and the ones that you play if conditions are favorable.

Playing online poker, you only have a limited amount of attention to allocate. If you are trying to maximize your profits, you are often playing a lot of tables. You have a choice whether you want to spend your energy playing extra hands, spending more time on key decisions, or selecting tables. I would recommend prioritizing key decisions and selecting tables over playing more hands. The biggest factor to determine your success is who you’re playing against. There has to be someone losing a lot of money for you to make a lot. With myriad tables online to choose from, proper table selection should require a fair amount of effort. It’s often worth sacrificing marginally profitable hands to spend time joining tables that are going to be more profitable overall.

A lot of novice players worry about being overly tight. The line of reasoning is something like “If I play too tight, then I won’t get paid off when I have a good hand.” This is true to some extent, but they fail to acknowledge the assumptions that they are making about their opponents: That they are noticing how tightly you are playing and that they are able to take that read and fold a medium strength hand when appropriate. For fish these assumptions definitely aren’t true and for many regulars they are only partly true. Against a good player you want to start throwing in more bluffs, especially post flop; but poor players tend to call too much to make this a good idea, regardless of whether you are loose or tight.

Playing loosely versus weak players and tightly versus skilled players is a rule of thumb that I’ve seen recommend online, and I think it’s a fairly solid principle. Since weaker players tend to call down too light, fold too much postflop, or both, for each hand either your steal equity or showdown equity is going to be higher. If you have a hand that’s normally marginal but you are likely to be in position versus a weak player in the hand, then it gains a lot of value. Playing tightly versus skilled players isn’t optimal; it’s more of a defensive strategy. It’s about minimizing one’s leaks rather than exploiting your opponent’s weaknesses. With competent opponents, they are going to be adapting to your play just like you are to theirs, so starting off with a tight range gives your opponent less opportunities to make great plays. Although not optimal, playing loosely vs. fish and tight vs. regulars is a good strategy.

Playing a lot of hands is a lot of fun – just ask anyone who plays poker recreationally. No one likes just sitting around folding, poker players want to win pots. I don’t play poker for fun though, I play for a challenge and to make money. If only playing profitable hands and only getting a lot of money in with a strong hands is tight, then I’m guilty as charged.

Hey guys what’s up?  This month was quite good for me, so I’m happy to share with you guys my progress.

The major thing that I realized in December is that I was a total table selection fish!  I thought that as long as you weren’t one of those guys who sits at tables with 8 regs you could have a good winrate.  You can read more about my thoughts on table selection in my previous two posts.

I started playing Cap in November when I realized that getting to my 200k milestone would be pretty tough playing 100 NL FR getting only .20 VPP/hand.  I had pretty reasonable expectations for doing Cap – breaking even and making money from the rakeback.  I blew them out of the water by averaging 1 bb/100 EV and more after I implemented my new table selection strategy.  This success has encouraged me enough to continue in Cap and I’m planning to start jumping into good 2/4 games after the new year.  I plan to play both Cap and regular so that I can keep up on both games for my students.  In addition, with good table selection I anticipate being able to average more than 4 bb/100 in regular games, so I am confident in my abilities in each.

My big motivation for the next four months is getting to a point in my poker career where I can be proud about where I am at compared to my peers.  It’s pretty lame to say that I’m playing small stakes poker IMO so I want to be at least playing a fair amount of mid-stakes at that point.  I think I have the skills to win at them, and now I have a reasonable bankroll to start taking some shots at 1/2 FR regular and 2/4 cap.

Hey what’s up guys?  I never got around to showing you guys my results from November this year, mostly because of my ambivalence about how the month went.  Here they are:

November Graph

Overall with rakeback and coaching I made around $2800 for the month, so not too bad for a month where I was running so badly at the tables.

What this month made me reevaluate is what I was doing differently from other players who are more successful than I am.  I came to the realization in November.  My table selection sucked.  There are two more successful styles to table selection than what I was doing, which was essentially just opening as many tables as I could and closing them when there was no fish.

The first method is table starting.  This is what guys like Cb4Mvp, a fellow Windsor poker player, do.  When you table start you get to play with a fish heads up for at least a couple hands.  Playing fish heads up is extremely profitable even if you are not a heads up player.  The ones that sit down at a full ring table with 1 person are typically the best kind of fish as well.

The second method is Jesus seating.  That’s when you keep track of the lobby and open tables whenever a fish sits down at a fresh table.  One has to play fewer tables or play more stakes to fully utilize this method.  This is how guys like Vinivici9586 have absurd winrates.  Nowadays there is software to help you do it; it’s expensive, but probably worth using.

The fact is not all fish are created equal.  A guy with 50 VPIP is going to lose a lot more than a guy with 40 VPIP, and that is going to be directly reflected in your results.  That’s why having practices that lead you to sit at the best tables are crucial for success.

Since I have made the adjustment I have been having a lot better results, and I look forward to sharing them with you!

Hey what’s up guys?  I have been playing a fair amount of Cap recently to clear my 2.4K bonus for 200,000 VPP’s.  I notice when I use the aliasing in HM, overall the regs are losing money at the game.  So I did a quick analysis with the opponents tab of how much each subsection of the player pool loses money.  This is from .5/1.  Then I estimated how it affects the winrates of the other players at the table.

0-10 VPIP: -20 bb/100 +estimated rake (3 bb/100)=17 /5(people to split losings) = 3.4 bb/100

10-20 VPIP: -3.6 bb/100 +4 = .4/5 = -.08 bb/100

20-30 VPIP(most regs): -2 bb/100 +5 = 3/5 = -.6 bb/100

30-40: -9.6 +7 =-2.6 /5 = .5 bb/100

40-50: -18 + 10 = -8/5 = 1.6 bb/100

50-60: -30 +12 = 18/5 = 3.6 bb/100

60-70: -44 +15 = 29/5 = 5.8 bb/100

70-80: -73 +18 = -55/5 = 11 bb/100

80-100: -136 + 25 = -111/5 = 22.2 bb/100

 

Lets assume that I’m breaking even against the regs and my winrate against the fish is 25% higher due to my expertise.  This is just a rough estimation.

 

Against a table with one 50-60 VP fish and 4 regs, my winrate would be (3.6*1.25)-4.5(rake) = .3 bb/100.  This is barely showing a profit.  So maybe we could say that to sit I need to have at least 1 fish with over 55% VPIP

 

Lets say I’m at a table with 2 40-50 VP fish.  Then my winrate would be 2*1.6*1.25 =  4 -4.5 = -.5 bb/100.  This table would not be profitable.  You could estimate that I need to have at least 2 fish between the 50-55% range to be profitable in the game.

 

Overall in my database the regs including me that have played over 5k hands in my database have lost at a rate of .73 EV bb/100 over 426k hands.  My winrate has been -.27 bb/100 over my sample of 182k hands.  Looks like I need to work on my table selection!

Hey what’s up guys?  I’m probably approaching about 2 million hands of poker on my poker career, so I figured I would share with you guys my opinions about opening ranges for each position.  These are general guidelines for a 100 bb online poker game.  I broke everything down into two categories, always open and sometimes open.  The latter category should only be played given favorable situations.  Some favorable factors could be players that are either too loose or too tight behind you, or dynamics like your opponent just 3-bet you or won a pot off you, so they’re likely to play tighter in the new hand.

Always open from EP (First 3 positions at 9 handed table)

Sometimes open from EP

Sometimes open from EP

Always open from MP (LJ + HJ)

Sometimes open from MP

Always open from CO

Sometimes open from CO

Always open from BTN

Sometimes open from BTN

Always open from SB

Sometimes open from SB