A few days ago I wrote an article about flop continuation betting and I was explaining what boards are good for c-betting. Today I am going to test those assumptions that I made with data from my own play. For reference, my flop c-bet success rates over the 350k hand sample were 46% overall, 47% vs. one player, 39% vs. 2 players, and 36% vs. 3 players. I am not going to filter based on my hand strength, although that could be an interesting comparison due to blockers.
A dry flop with a high card: I am defining this one as any J or higher with two cards under a jack. I speculated that these flops would be good to fire with up to 3 players in the pot as a bluff, and only get better with equity.
*J high – 46% vs 1 player, 31% vs 2 players, 20% vs 3 players
*Q high – 51% vs 1 player, 51% vs 2 players, 33% vs 3 players
*K high – 51% vs 1 player, 49% vs 2 players, 68% vs 3 players
*A high – 48% vs 1 player, 44% vs 2 players, 44% vs 3 players
As you can see, the high card dry boards were all quite good to c-bet vs 1 player, and mostly good to c-bet vs 2 players. Since players are more likely to play hands with aces, the ace high boards got less folds than other boards. The jack high boards are more likely to get peeled by hands like overcards and middle pairs, so the success was lower. My hypothesis was correct for Q high through A high boards.
A low dry flop: I speculated that these are good to bet with any equity but not as a pure bluff. I speculated that in a 3 way or greater pot, these would be difficult to bluff at. I’m defining these as any board that is T high or lower that doesn’t have any possible straights on it, and a limited number of open ended draws. My c-bet success vs 1 was 46% and vs 2 was 29%. My hypothesis was correct.
Paired flop: I speculated that these would be good to bet with 100% of your range in a 2-3 way pot. My c-bet success vs 1 player was 51%, vs 2 players was 44%, and vs 3 or more players was 52%. My hypothesis was correct, and it looks like in general these are good to c-bet versus any number of players.
Wet flop: For all of these I am going to filter out paired boards and I am going to break them up into a few different categories.
*Single suited boards – 45% vs 1 player, 38% vs 2 players, 31% vs 3 players. These are marginallly lower than my average c-bet success rates, but only by a little bit.
*Monotone boards – 50% vs 1 player, 42% vs 2 players. These boards look good to c-bet with air vs 1 or two players. My intuition says that they are better to c-bet vs. competent opponents than weak ones.
*3 straight boards – Boards with 3 connected cards on them. They are unique in the fact that three different straights are possible. 29% vs 1 player, 36% vs 2 players. These are poor boards to c-bet as a bluff.
*2 possible straights – These boards have 2 connected cards with a third separated by a gap. 37% vs 1 player, 33% vs 2 players.
From my analysis, it looks like my hypotheses were mostly correct. It is interesting to note that over my sample of hands, my c-bet success rate was extremely high. I would recommend doing this analysis over your own database to figure out what works in your games. Having this knowledge in your command will allow you to put more pressure on your opponents and cause them to make more mistakes versus you.
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